Toyota sees record sales

Toyota Motor Corp forecast a 20 percent begin global sales to a record 8.48 million vehicles the coming year as it claws back out of this year's output losses brought on by natural disasters in Japan and Thailand.

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Toyota overtook General Motors Co because the world's top-selling automaker in 2008 but is placed to get rid of that crown this season as supply-chain disruptions in the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan and flooding in Thailand cut production all over the world.

With estimated sales this year of 7.90 million vehicles for that group, including units Daihatsu Motor Co and Hino Motors Ltd, Toyota will probably rank third behind General Motors and Volkswagen AG.

Toyota could regain the top ranking next year because it builds inventory to satisfy pent-up demand and adds output capacity in China and Brazil, among other countries. GM and VW have not disclosed their 2012 sales plans, and Toyota did not provide group forecasts.

"The reason they lost sales this season was because they couldn't build the cars. Now that they are able to, it's possible they'll take back the top spot," said Satoru Takada, analyst at Tokyo-based T.I.W.

"But this will depend which markets the growth can come from," he explained, noting Toyota was dominant in Southeast Asia and also the Middle East, but faces tougher competition in China and South America.

Toyota's parent-only arrange for 2012 beats its previous peak of 8.43 million vehicles in 2007.

"I believe the prospective is achievable given Toyota is quickly recovering production and launching new models," said Lee Hyun-soo, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul.

"There will be cut-throat competition between Toyota, GM and Volkswagen for the top spot in the global market next year."

Toyota's president, Akio Toyoda, has said he was not interested in a race to be the largest automaker, while VW has a goal of selling Ten million vehicles to grab the title by 2018.

Measured by stock value, Toyota is much above its rivals, at $111 billion - more than VW and GM combined.

YEN CONCERN

At its peak in 2007, however, Toyota was valued at a lot more than twice that, and analysts said a sales recovery would struggle to result in similar profit gains at today's forex rates.

"Rather than a rise in its production plans, the marketplace is focusing on how (Toyota) will limit the losses with the dollar at 77-78 yen," said Yoshihiko Tabei, chief analyst at Kazaka Securities in Tokyo. "Even if they increase production, you will find questions about how much which will lift profits."

Toyota's shares have forfeit 22 percent so far this year and therefore are down 70 % from the peak at the begining of 2007, once the dollar fetched around 120 yen. On Thursday, they fell 0.6 percent in a Tokyo market that lost 0.4 percent.

When the envy of the auto industry, Toyota has already established a torrid few years - from a quality crisis that triggered the recall in excess of 10 million vehicles globally, a tarnished image and a subsequent slide in sales.

Just like it had been recovering from that the March 11 quake and tsunami that destroyed hundreds of kilometers of Japan's northeastern coastline forced it and other domestic automakers to lessen output for months.

In October, damage to suppliers from Thailand's floods did exactly the same, hampering plans to make up for earlier output losses.

Production disrupted through the Thai floods has mostly returned to normal, keeping output only in Japan and Thailand reduced.

EMERGING MARKET LAGGARD

But Toyota has also lagged due to a relatively slow push into emerging markets as it scrambled to satisfy runaway demand in mature markets for example North America within the years prior to the worldwide financial crisis.

Toyota now aims to market half its cars in emerging markets by 2015, up from around 40 % now. "The numerical plans announced today reflect that strategy," said spokeswoman Amiko Tomita.

With development in developing markets for example India and China slowing and Europe in the middle of a debt crisis, some said Toyota's plans may be optimistic.

"With these factors in your mind, I believe some investors are somewhat skeptical that they'll reach these numbers," said Fujio Ando, a senior analyst at Chibagin Asset Management. "There might be a slight gap between your company's numbers and what investors expect," he explained.

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Toyota also announced plans to sell 8.95 million Toyota, Lexus and Scion vehicles worldwide in 2013 and build 8.98 million vehicles. It gave no regional breakdown for the forecasts outside Japan.

It plans to build 3.40 million vehicles and sell 1.53 million vehicles at home in 2012.